Regionals Predictions
| Regionals Probabilities | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | Make Quarters | Make Semis | Make Final | Win Final |
| Spacestation Gaming | ✓ | ✓ | 61% | 36% |
| G2 Esports | ✓ | ✓ | 60% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Soniqs | ✓ | 61% | 20% | 7% |
| NRG Esports | ✓ | 79% | 33% | 15% |
| Cloud9 | 62% | 41% | 18% | 10% |
| Ghost Gaming | 38% | 20% | 7% | 3% |
| NA | ||||
| Regionals Probabilities | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | Make Quarters | Make Semis | Make Final | Win Final |
| Renault Vitality | ✓ | ✓ | 60% | 35% |
| Dignitas | ✓ | ✓ | 50% | 22% |
| Team Reciprocity | ✓ | 77% | 37% | 17% |
| mousesports | ✓ | 77% | 36% | 17% |
| Veloce Esports | 46% | 21% | 8% | 4% |
| FC Barcelona | 54% | 25% | 10% | 4% |
| EU | ||||
Click here to view previous week's regional predictions.
Match Predictions
Previous Weeks
| Week 8 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco | 39% | 61% | Team Singularity | ||
| mousesports | 61% | 39% | Endpoint | ||
| FC Barcelona | 71% | 29% | Team SoloMid | ||
| Team Reciprocity | 49% | 51% | Dignitas | ||
| FC Barcelona | 50% | 50% | mousesports | ||
| Renault Vitality | 63% | 37% | Veloce Esports | ||
| EU | |||||
| Week 8 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG Esports | 55% | 45% | Ghost Gaming | ||
| Spacestation Gaming | 80% | 20% | eUnited | ||
| Pittsburgh Knights | 32% | 68% | Cloud9 | ||
| Spacestation Gaming | 52% | 48% | G2 Esports | ||
| Rogue | 50% | 50% | Flight | ||
| G2 Esports | 59% | 41% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| NA | |||||
| Week 7 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dignitas | 62% | 38% | Endpoint | ||
| Team Reciprocity | 72% | 28% | Team SoloMid | ||
| Team Singularity | 39% | 61% | Endpoint | ||
| Veloce Esports | 51% | 49% | Dignitas | ||
| FC Barcelona | 75% | 25% | AS Monaco | ||
| Renault Vitality | 61% | 39% | mousesports | ||
| EU | |||||
| Week 7 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Team Fireburner) Cloud9 | 40% | 60% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| Spacestation Gaming | 73% | 27% | Rogue | ||
| Flight | 33% | 67% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| Ghost Gaming | 69% | 31% | Cloud9 | ||
| Pittsburgh Knights | 52% | 48% | eUnited | ||
| NRG Esports | 43% | 57% | G2 Esports | ||
| NA | |||||
| Week 6 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 69% | 31% | Team Singularity | ||
| Team SoloMid | 50% | 50% | Endpoint | ||
| Veloce Esports | 60% | 40% | mousesports | ||
| Team Reciprocity | 76% | 24% | AS Monaco | ||
| Renault Vitality | 59% | 41% | Dignitas | ||
| EU | |||||
| Week 6 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spacestation Gaming | 72% | 28% | Flight | ||
| eUnited | 44% | 56% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| Ghost Gaming | 44% | 56% | G2 Esports | ||
| Pittsburgh Knights | 56% | 44% | Rogue | ||
| NRG Esports | 78% | 22% | Cloud9 | ||
| NA | |||||
| Week 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team SoloMid | 66% | 34% | Team Singularity | ||
| Veloce Esports | 82% | 18% | AS Monaco | ||
| Team Reciprocity | 70% | 30% | Endpoint | ||
| Team SoloMid | 40% | 60% | mousesports | ||
| FC Barcelona | 46% | 54% | Dignitas | ||
| Renault Vitality | 61% | 39% | Team Reciprocity | ||
| EU | |||||
| Week 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| eUnited | 71% | 29% | Flight | ||
| Ghost Gaming | 75% | 25% | Rogue | ||
| Pittsburgh Knights | 48% | 52% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| eUnited | 20% | 80% | G2 Esports | ||
| Spacestation Gaming | 72% | 28% | Cloud9 | ||
| NRG Esports | 72% | 28% | Pittsburgh Knights | ||
| NA | |||||
| Week 4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veloce Esports | 76% | 24% | Team Singularity | ||
| Renault Vitality | 81% | 19% | AS Monaco | ||
| Veloce Esports | 71% | 29% | Endpoint | ||
| Team Reciprocity | 62% | 38% | FC Barcelona | ||
| Team SoloMid | 55% | 45% | AS Monaco | ||
| Dignitas | 66% | 34% | mousesports | ||
| EU | |||||
| Week 4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghost Gaming | 70% | 30% | Flight | ||
| NRG Esports | 70% | 30% | Rogue | ||
| Ghost Gaming | 52% | 48% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| eUnited | 42% | 58% | Rogue | ||
| Pittsburgh Knights | 35% | 65% | Spacestation Gaming | ||
| Cloud9 | 23% | 77% | G2 Esports | ||
| NA | |||||
| Week 3 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dignitas | 85% | 15% | Team Singularity | ||
| AS Monaco | 51% | 49% | Endpoint | ||
| mousesports | 68% | 32% | Team Singularity | ||
| Renault Vitality | 73% | 27% | Team SoloMid | ||
| Team Reciprocity | 66% | 34% | Veloce Esports | ||
| Renault Vitality | 44% | 56% | FC Barcelona | ||
| EU | |||||
| Week 3 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud9 | 36% | 64% | Flight | ||
| Rogue | 49% | 51% | Susquehanna Soniqs | ||
| G2 Esports | 86% | 14% | Flight | ||
| NRG Esports | 80% | 20% | eUnited | ||
| Pittsburgh Knights | 31% | 69% | Ghost Gaming | ||
| NRG Esports | 71% | 29% | Spacestation Gaming | ||
| NA | |||||
The forecasts above are based on 1,000 simulations for each game. I use Markov chain to simulate the events of each team and their opponent. Events could include shots, saves, passes, etc. I house the transition probabilities in a transition matrix. A transition probability is defined as the probability of an event occurring given a certain event has just occurred. For example, one transition probability would be the probability of team B saving the ball when team A shoots the ball. Transition matrices are constructed using play-by-play data from previous weeks. The model is rather simplistic and does not take into account things like momentum (which is an important factor to consider in Rocket League). Future work will take this into account as well as explore how similar certain teams are with the hope of increasing the accuracy of my forecasts. Predictions should become more accurate as the season goes on, thus we should get a more accurate picture of how teams behave. Future work will also include using priors to forecast games when there is little data about one or both of the teams. I also plan on evaluating my predictions in order to calibrate or even rework my model.
Lastly, I plan on ranking each team from NA and EU, giving them an SPI score, and offensive score, and a defensive score. I am not sure when I will get to all of this (as I am currently working and finishing up grad school) so don't hold your breath. Thanks for visiting!